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The Impact Of OPEC’s Growth Expectations On The Oil Market

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OPEC SG HE Haitham Al Ghais Portrait Hi

On the supply side, non-OPEC supply growth is forecasted to reach 1.8 mb/d in 2023, with the US accounting for a significant portion of this expansion. Looking ahead to 2024, non-OPEC supply is projected to expand by 1.4 mb/d, with drivers including US tight oil output, offshore start-ups in Latin America and the North Sea, as well as oil sands projects in Canada.

OPEC also noted that the economic growth experienced in key economies during the initial three quarters of the year exceeded expectations, with a forecasted global economic growth rate of 2.6% for 2024.

The report further emphasizes that the US is expected to lead the growth, followed by other key contributors such as Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Norway, and Kazakhstan.

Despite an estimated increase in non-OPEC upstream sector investment in 2023, OPEC anticipates a slight drop in investment for 2024.

Given the uncertainties in the global oil market, OPEC mentioned that many countries participating in the DoC (Declaration of Cooperation) have announced additional voluntary adjustments in 1Q24 to maintain stability and balance in the global oil markets.

Furthermore, OPEC estimates that the world will need $12.1 trillion in investments to meet the rising oil demand in the long term.

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais emphasized the importance of sufficient investments in the oil and gas sector to prevent long-term market volatility, stressing that the focus should be on reducing greenhouse gas emissions across all energy sectors.

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