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The Decline in Local Rice Production Causes a Soaring Increase in Prices



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The report states, “Rice consumption in Nigeria has been steadily increasing, aligning with the consistent growth of the rice market, nearly matching the annual population growth projection of 2.6 per cent at two per cent. This has led to a supply gap of about 2 million metric tonnes annually.”

Despite its potential as a net rice exporter, Nigeria has spent over $15 billion in the past decade to meet the escalating demand for rice.

Internationally, rice prices have surged to their highest level in nearly 12 years in 2023, mainly due to India’s ban on rice exports and the potential impact of El Nino on production in key regions. Additionally, disruptions caused by rain and quality variations during Vietnam’s summer-autumn harvest have contributed to the price hike.

The report observed, “A similar trend is observed in Nigeria, where the price of rice has increased by over 37% year-to-date, driven by reduced production in 2022 due to the effects of flooding during the wet season of that year.” The report also attributed the price hike to flooding and the ripple effect of international market dynamics.

Despite the challenges, the report anticipates a potential 4% rise in rice production and forecasts an additional increase in the price of paddy rice of around 32%.

The firm noted a significant increase of over 35% in the production of milled paddy rice in the country, reaching an estimated output of 5.4 million metric tonnes in 2022, up from 3.9 million metric tonnes in 2015. The Northwest region of Nigeria is responsible for 72% of the total rice production in the country, despite rice cultivation taking place across all of Nigeria’s agro-ecological zones.